Vol. 5, No. 3, 2012

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ISSN: 1944-4184 (e-only)
ISSN: 1944-4176 (print)
Statistical analysis of diagnostic accuracy with applications to cricket

Lauren Mondin, Courtney Weber, Scott Clark, Jessica Winborn, Melinda M. Holt and Ananda B. W. Manage

Vol. 5 (2012), No. 3, 349–359
Abstract

In the sport of cricket, as with any other sport, spectators and officials would like the games to be as fair as possible. To this end, we evaluate methods used to determine the winner of interrupted games using statistical accuracy. In the traditional One Day International cricket matches, the current Duckworth–Lewis (DL) method and the discounted most productive overs (DMPO) method are each used for predicting the winner. However, with the growing popularity of shorter Twenty20 matches, a new Bhattacharya–Gill–Swartz (BGS) method has also been introduced. We created both classical and Bayesian intervals to estimate the true accuracy of each. Using past game data from 2005–2010, we compared the DL, DMPO and BGS methods using the new accuracy intervals and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

Keywords
interval estimates, Bayesian methods, ROC curves, delta method
Mathematical Subject Classification 2010
Primary: 62PXX
Milestones
Received: 10 April 2012
Revised: 11 January 2013
Accepted: 7 March 2013
Published: 14 April 2013

Communicated by Scott Chapman
Authors
Lauren Mondin
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Sam Houston State University
3307 Legends Mist Drive
Spring, TX 77386
United States
Courtney Weber
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Sam Houston State University
11 Mohawk Spur
Huntsville, TX 77320
United States
Scott Clark
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Sam Houston State University
4502 Brazos Bend Drive
Pearland, TX 77584
United States
Jessica Winborn
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Sam Houston State University
PO Box 373
New Waverly, TX 77358
United States
Melinda M. Holt
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Sam Houston State University
PO Box 2206
Huntsville, TX 77340
United States
Ananda B. W. Manage
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Sam Houston State University
PO Box 2206
Huntsville, TX 77340
United States