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Lawrence lifts, matroids, and maximum likelihood degrees

Taylor Brysiewicz and Aida Maraj

Vol. 16 (2025), No. 2, 217–242
Abstract

We express the maximum likelihood (ML) degrees of a family of toric varieties in terms of Möbius invariants of matroids. The family of interest are those parametrized by monomial maps given by Lawrence lifts of totally unimodular matrices with even circuits. Specifying these matrices to be vertex-edge incidence matrices of bipartite graphs gives the ML degrees of some hierarchical models and three dimensional quasi-independence models. Included in this list are the no-three-way interaction models with one binary random variable, for which we give closed formulae.

Keywords
toric variety, maximum likelihood degree, Lawrence lift, matroid, algebraic statistics
Mathematical Subject Classification
Primary: 14M25, 52B40, 62R01
Milestones
Received: 15 January 2025
Revised: 4 November 2025
Accepted: 5 November 2025
Published: 28 November 2025
Authors
Taylor Brysiewicz
Department of Mathematics
University of Western Ontario
London, ON
Canada
Aida Maraj
Department of Mathematics
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, MI
United States